Rubrik has successfully reached our Fibonacci retracement zone. After entering the zone at its upper boundary around the 50% Fibonacci level, Rubrik reacted immediately and showed a small bounce to the upside.
However, we expect the stock to move slightly deeper into our Fibonacci zone before continuing its broader bullish trend. Our primary scenario expects Rubrik to break above the previous local high of $106.70, which would signal the potential completion of the current short-term correction and could trigger significant bullish momentum toward a sustainable long-term uptrend.
Alternative Scenario
If Rubrik fails to validate our Fibonacci retracement zone and instead breaks below $67.41, we would shift our focus toward our alternative scenario.
Under this scenario, we would interpret the previous impulsive move as a potential bull trap, with Wave 1 having been invalidated and the move representing an overshooting Wave B.
In that case, the correction forming Dark Blue Wave 2 would not yet have been completed. We would then expect Rubrik to move lower and potentially reach our alternative Fibonacci retracement zone.
Alternative Long Entry Levels
- 61.8%: $59.06
- 78.6%: $51.65
We assign a lower probability to this alternative scenario compared with our primary scenario. Nevertheless, we believe it is important to keep this possibility in mind and monitor the relevant levels closely.
For now, we continue to act according to our primary scenario and expect the current Fibonacci zone to hold.
If anything significant happens with Rubrik or our market structure changes, we will update you immediately.
Kind regards,
Monalytics
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