We are officially deactivating our short-selling zone for UnitedHealth Group.
If you entered a short trade at the lower edge of our selling zone, the position would currently be up approximately 13%.
The market has now broken below the $381 level, which was our validation level for this short-selling zone. This confirms that our bearish setup played out as expected.
Congratulations — this was another successful analysis.
Long-Term Primary Scenario
Looking ahead, our primary long-term scenario remains bearish. We expect UnitedHealth Group to continue its decline and eventually break down toward new cycle lows.
Based on this scenario, we have established a long-term Fibonacci retracement zone where we expect the broader correction to come to an end and a major cyclical bottom to form.
Long-Term Entry Levels
- 123.6% Fibonacci: $181.05
- 138.2% Fibonacci: $147.96
- 161.8% Fibonacci: $94.97
If our primary scenario plays out, this Fibonacci retracement zone could provide a major long-term buying opportunity. We would expect the completion of the broader corrective structure within this area and potentially the beginning of a new long-term bullish cycle.
Alternative Scenario
There is, however, a second scenario that could potentially play out.
Under this scenario, the major bottom may have already formed at $234.60. Instead of interpreting this move as Orange Wave A, we would count the low at $234.60 as Yellow Wave 2, marking a major cyclical bottom.
From this perspective, UnitedHealth Group would have already started a new sequence of major bullish impulses, potentially establishing the foundation for a new long-term bull market.
However, this is currently not our preferred scenario. From a long-term perspective, we continue to expect further downside and therefore assign a higher probability to our primary bearish scenario.
We will continue to monitor the structure closely and update our analysis if the market provides new information.
If anything significant changes with this stock, we will update you immediately.
Kind regards,
Monalytics
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